A tandem evolutionary algorithm for identifying causal rules from complex data

We propose a new evolutionary approach for discovering causal rules in complex classification problems from batch data. Key aspects include (a) the use of a hypergeometric probability mass function as a principled statistic for assessing fitness that quantifies the probability that the observed association between a given clause and target class is due to chance, taking into account the size of the dataset, the amount of missing data, and the distribution of outcome categories, (b) tandem age-layered evolutionary algorithms for evolving parsimonious archives of conjunctive clauses, and disjunctions of these conjunctions, each of which have probabilistically significant associations with outcome classes, and (c) separate archive bins for clauses of different orders, with dynamically adjusted order-specific thresholds. The method is validated on majority-on and multiplexer benchmark problems exhibiting various combinations of heterogeneity, epistasis, overlap, noise in class associations, missing data, extraneous features, and imbalanced classes. We also validate on a more realistic synthetic genome dataset with heterogeneity, epistasis, extraneous features, and noise. In all synthetic epistatic benchmarks, we consistently recover the true causal rule sets used to generate the data. Finally, we discuss an application to a complex real-world survey dataset designed to inform possible ecohealth interventions for Chagas disease

A note on corrected scores for logistic regression

This article describes a method for constructing a corrected score for logistic regression that is effective in reducing bias incurred through covariate measurement error. Stefanski (1989) showed there does not exist a corrected likelihood score for the logistic model with normal additive measurement error. To circumvent this result, an approximate likelihood score is defined for the logistic model that is conceptually and computationally straightforward and that is nearly efficient in the absence of measurement error. It is shown that the approximate likelihood score admits a corrected score. The results are extended to the Probit regression model.

Searching the clinical fitness landscape.

Widespread unexplained variations in clinical practices and patient outcomes suggest major opportunities for improving the quality and safety of medical care. However, there is little consensus regarding how to best identify and disseminate healthcare improvements and a dearth of theory to guide the debate. Many consider multicenter randomized controlled trials to be the gold standard of evidence-based medicine, although results are often inconclusive or may not be generally applicable due to differences in the contexts within which care is provided. Increasingly, others advocate the use "quality improvement collaboratives", in which multi-institutional teams share information to identify potentially better practices that are subsequently evaluated in the local contexts of specific institutions, but there is concern that such collaborative learning approaches lack the statistical rigor of randomized trials. Using an agent-based model, we show how and why a collaborative learning approach almost invariably leads to greater improvements in expected patient outcomes than more traditional approaches in searching simulated clinical fitness landscapes. This is due to a combination of greater statistical power and more context-dependent evaluation of treatments, especially in complex terrains where some combinations of practices may interact in affecting outcomes. The results of our simulations are consistent with observed limitations of randomized controlled trials and provide important insights into probable reasons for effectiveness of quality improvement collaboratives in the complex socio-technical environments of healthcare institutions. Our approach illustrates how modeling the evolution of medical practice as search on a clinical fitness landscape can aid in identifying and understanding strategies for improving the quality and safety of medical care